Publications

This article proposes a firm-based theory to explain the rise of anti-system politics, emphasizing the influence of firms on political attitudes. It argues that economic factors like globalization and technological change are insufficient explanations without considering firm strategies. Low-road employers, who offer low-quality jobs, create a mismatch between workers’ economic experiences and expectations, fostering feelings of unfairness and political dissatisfaction. Using a differences-in-differences design based on changes in Italian retail regulation, the study finds that the entry of large, low-road retailers boosts support for the radical right party, Lega Nord. A conjoint experiment surveying Italian private sector employees (n=1340) links low-road employment, within-firm inequality, and out-group employment opportunities to perceptions of unfairness and anti-system political attitudes. These results highlight the importance of firm-level dynamics in political analysis.

Why do far-right, anti-system parties thrive in prosperous regions? This study examines the Lega Nord’s rise in 1990s Northern Italy, challenging the assumption that economic decline drives populism. Leveraging the Veneto Workers History—a dataset of 3.4 million employment records—and electoral data from 576 municipalities, the analysis integrates fixed-effects regression with individual-level modeling of local councillors’ characteristics. Findings reveal that the Lega’s success stemmed not from economic decline but from workplace inequalities, labor market segmentation, and immigrant labor amplifying status threats. Small and medium-sized firms pursuing “low-road” strategies fostered “communities of fate” that united workers and business owners around exclusionary, nativist narratives. Local councillors from firms with higher inequality and greater immigrant presence were more likely to represent the Lega. This study demonstrates how firm-level dynamics and grassroots mobilization translate socio-economic tensions into political instability. By combining granular workplace data with political outcomes, it offers new insights into the structural conditions enabling far-right populism to evolve from fringe movements into entrenched political forces.

This paper examines the role of sociotropic and egotropic perceptions in driving support for anti-system parties, focusing on the rise of the far-right Front National (FN) in France. Using 20 years of survey data from the Enquête interrégional des phénomènes politiques, I find that both sociotropic perceptions—concerns about regional economic decline—and egotropic concerns—personal economic hardship—significantly shape political de-attachment and support for the FN. I also find that the interaction between these two perceptions strengthens the likelihood of supporting populist parties. Additionally, an original survey experiment investigates how voters in economically lagging regions react to programmatic and anti-system cues. The experiment shows that voters in high-unemployment regions are more likely to support outsider candidates, suggesting that non-programmatic mechanisms are important in explaining populist support, particularly among politically de-attached voters. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the relative importance of economic and cultural explanations for populism by highlighting the role of community-level perceptions and the non-programmatic appeal of outsider candidates in shaping voting behavior. This study underscores the need to further explore the role of sociotropic perceptions in driving political behavior in the context of regional economic decline.

This paper explores how middle-class employers structure informal urban labor markets. I explore the politics of forbearance and show that, unlike pre-existing research, the middle class and small business are key constituencies in the production of the political support needed to sustain forbearance. This project combines two months of fieldwork in six informal settlements in Buenos Aires, an original in-person survey conducted using a novel GIS mapping of Buenos Aires slums and private neighborhoods, and two original online survey experiments targeted to affluent neighborhoods in Buenos Aires City. Unlike previous research, I argue that for incumbent parties in large urban areas, forbearance might be a strategy to cater to urban middle classes as much as or even more than it is for catering to the urban poor.

This article examines the firm-level roots of anti-system political attitudes, focusing on Jair Bolsonaro’s rise in Brazil. Using Brazil’s RAIS dataset, a comprehensive matched employer-employee longitudinal database, and exclusive data on Aliados apoios, a unique dataset of over 69,000 Bolsonaro supporters, this study provides new insights into the employment trajectories of his base. Paired with an original representative online survey of full-time workers featuring observational and experimental components, the findings show that Bolsonaro supporters faced significant declines in wages and occupational premiums relative to similar workers. Experimental evidence reveals that poor job quality, workplace unfairness, and wage inequality information might fuel anti-democratic attitudes. By leveraging distinctive data and methods, this article uncovers how firm-level inequalities shape populist and anti-system sentiments, offering a novel perspective on the political consequences of economic disparity and bringing nuance to economic theories of populism.